12-Month LTV : CAC

Sunny Within · Shopify DTC · Lifetimely cohorts · Aug 21, 2026
Blended 12-month
1.80×
0 sales margin per customer ÷ CAC · all 20 cohorts, spend-weighted 3.00×
Short of target
▼ 67%
Blended 12-month
2.79×
0 total sales per customer ÷ CAC · all 20 cohorts, spend-weighted 3.00×
Short of target
▼ 7%
Trailing 12 cohorts — banked today vs projected at month 12
banked projected range Lifetimely forecast
3.00× TARGET1.0×Sep 251,671 cust1.97× 1.96–2.00Oct 252,179 cust1.96× 1.95–1.99Nov 252,544 cust1.95× 1.94–1.98Dec 252,100 cust2.14× 2.11–2.19Jan 262,177 cust2.04× 2.02–2.08Feb 261,940 cust1.96× 1.94–2.02Mar 261,783 cust1.87× 1.77–1.90Apr 261,606 cust1.71× 1.64–1.72May 261,606 cust1.61× 1.49–1.61Jun 261,101 cust1.37× 1.26–1.41Jul 261,206 cust1.45× 1.33–1.46Aug 26592 cust1.19× 1.06–1.27
3.00× TARGET1.0×margin LTV ÷ blended CAC — CAC withheld for filtered segmentsSample10,541 cust1.78× 1.78–1.78Welcome offer21,994 cust1.78× 1.76–1.84Full price11,162 cust1.74× 1.72–1.76
3.00× TARGET1.0×margin LTV ÷ blended CAC — CAC withheld for filtered segmentsMushroom Blend2,102 cust2.40× 2.33–2.41Cognitive10,146 cust2.03× 2.01–2.04Immunity4,244 cust2.01× 1.97–2.02Sleep7,058 cust1.99× 1.96–2.00Longevity33,438 cust1.86× 1.83–1.87NAD+ Complete581 cust0.78× 0.64–0.92
3.00× TARGET1.0×Sep 251,671 cust3.11× 3.09–3.15Oct 252,179 cust3.07× 3.05–3.11Nov 252,544 cust3.31× 3.29–3.34Dec 252,100 cust3.36× 3.33–3.42Jan 262,177 cust3.08× 3.05–3.11Feb 261,940 cust2.92× 2.88–2.97Mar 261,783 cust2.77× 2.73–2.82Apr 261,606 cust2.54× 2.48–2.62May 261,606 cust2.40× 2.34–2.42Jun 261,101 cust2.01× 1.96–2.06Jul 261,206 cust2.17× 2.11–2.18Aug 26592 cust1.72× 1.59–1.82
3.00× TARGET1.0×revenue LTV ÷ blended CAC — CAC withheld for filtered segmentsSample10,546 cust2.80× 2.80–2.80Full price11,162 cust2.79× 2.76–2.81Welcome offer21,995 cust2.73× 2.70–2.82
3.00× TARGET1.0×revenue LTV ÷ blended CAC — CAC withheld for filtered segmentsMushroom Blend2,102 cust3.86× 3.80–3.87Cognitive10,146 cust3.28× 3.27–3.30Immunity4,244 cust3.18× 3.15–3.20Sleep7,058 cust3.12× 3.11–3.14Longevity33,438 cust2.88× 2.84–2.90NAD+ Complete582 cust1.27× 1.16–1.48
May 26 Projected
1.61×1.49–1.61
1.17× banked today
Lifetimely says 2.11×
1,606$9940%
customersCACrepurch.
45% welcome-offer mix; Longevity led entries
Jun 26 Projected
1.37×1.26–1.41
0.91× banked today
Lifetimely says 2.24×
1,101$11837%
customersCACrepurch.
53% welcome-offer mix, the year's highest; CAC peaked $118
Jul 26 Projected
1.45×1.33–1.46
0.81× banked today
Lifetimely says 2.42×
1,206$9423%
customersCACrepurch.
NAD+ Complete 62→264, becomes the #2 entry point
Aug 26 Projected
1.19×1.06–1.27
0.51× banked today
Lifetimely says 0.81×
592$1373%
customersCACrepurch.
NAD+ overtakes Longevity as the entry product
Sample Projected
1.78×1.78–1.78
1.80× banked today
 
10,541$8995%
first ordersblended CACmature
Program effectively stopped after 2025 Q3
Welcome offer Projected
1.78×1.76–1.84
1.66× banked today
 
21,994$9050%
first ordersblended CACmature
Largest entry route; no 12-month value penalty visible
Full price Projected
1.74×1.72–1.76
1.58× banked today
 
11,162$9131%
first ordersblended CACmature
No premium over the welcome offer at 12 months
Mushroom Blend Projected
2.40×2.33–2.41
2.31× banked today
 
2,102$8954%
first ordersblended CACmature
Best value in the portfolio — and being discontinued
Cognitive Projected
2.03×2.01–2.04
1.97× banked today
 
10,146$8971%
first ordersblended CACmature
Down 53% from peak, yet second-best value per customer
Longevity Projected
1.86×1.83–1.87
1.72× banked today
 
33,438$9049%
first ordersblended CACmature
92% of first orders and the weakest established SKU
NAD+ Complete Projected
0.78×0.64–0.92
0.47× banked today
 
581$1080%
first ordersblended CACmature
New entry point, worst value — 581 customers, none mature
May 26 Projected
2.40×2.34–2.42
1.76× banked today
Lifetimely says 3.40×
1,606$9940%
customersCACrepurch.
45% welcome-offer mix; Longevity led entries
Jun 26 Projected
2.01×1.96–2.06
1.33× banked today
Lifetimely says 3.60×
1,101$11837%
customersCACrepurch.
53% welcome-offer mix, the year's highest; CAC peaked $118
Jul 26 Projected
2.17×2.11–2.18
1.23× banked today
Lifetimely says 3.90×
1,206$9423%
customersCACrepurch.
NAD+ Complete 62→264, becomes the #2 entry point
Aug 26 Projected
1.72×1.59–1.82
0.74× banked today
Lifetimely says 1.30×
592$1373%
customersCACrepurch.
NAD+ overtakes Longevity as the entry product
Sample Projected
2.80×2.80–2.80
2.82× banked today
 
10,546$8995%
first ordersblended CACmature
Program effectively stopped after 2025 Q3
Full price Projected
2.79×2.76–2.81
2.52× banked today
 
11,162$9131%
first ordersblended CACmature
No premium over the welcome offer at 12 months
Welcome offer Projected
2.73×2.70–2.82
2.56× banked today
 
21,995$9050%
first ordersblended CACmature
Largest entry route; no 12-month value penalty visible
Mushroom Blend Projected
3.86×3.80–3.87
3.73× banked today
 
2,102$8954%
first ordersblended CACmature
Best value in the portfolio — and being discontinued
Cognitive Projected
3.28×3.27–3.30
3.19× banked today
 
10,146$8971%
first ordersblended CACmature
Down 53% from peak, yet second-best value per customer
Longevity Projected
2.88×2.84–2.90
2.68× banked today
 
33,438$9049%
first ordersblended CACmature
92% of first orders and the weakest established SKU
NAD+ Complete Projected
1.27×1.16–1.48
0.76× banked today
 
582$1080%
first ordersblended CACmature
New entry point, worst value — 581 customers, none mature
Actuals and projections from the Lifetimely API; projection anchored on each cohort’s latest actual and scaled by the maturation curve of the 8 cohorts with a live month 12 · leave-one-out error 4.0% from M0, 1.9% from M3, under 1% from M6 · grey tick = Lifetimely’s own forecast, from the app export (differs from the API by a median 3.9% on shared actuals)page 1 of 3